(Bloomberg) -- Michigan's hard-hit economy occupies center stage as two favorite sons, Mitt Romney and John McCain, square off in a potentially decisive contest for the Republican presidential nomination, with an outsider, Mike Huckabee, gaining ground.
``It's a strong three-man race,'' said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who isn't affiliated with any candidate. Michigan's primary tomorrow ``is a must-win for Romney, a need- to-win for McCain, and Huckabee just has to do well enough to go on to South Carolina,'' which votes Jan. 19.
Romney, who was born and raised in Michigan, is staking his candidacy on a victory in the state after his second-place showings in Iowa and New Hampshire this month. Even though Romney, 60, hasn't lived in the state for more than three decades, he benefits from high name recognition: His late father, George, was chairman of American Motors Corp., a three- term governor in the 1960s and a presidential candidate.
Michigan's highest-in-the-nation unemployment rate and ballooning home-mortgage foreclosures have forced the candidates to tout their economic remedies.
``When the nation begins to feel a hiccup, we all talk about a stimulus package, the need to put money in the hands of consumers and so forth,'' Romney said in an interview today. ``But when Michigan has been suffering for 10 years, people have sat by and been somewhat idle.''
This weekend, Romney and McCain sparred over who would best be able to address the state's economic woes. Romney, who promises to lower tax rates ``across the board'' to stimulate the economy, criticized McCain for saying some lost jobs would never come back.
`Going Away'
``Some say these are jobs that are just going away and you better get used to it,'' the former Massachusetts governor said at a campaign stop Jan. 12 outside a General Motors Corp. plant in Ypsilanti where the automaker has announced plans to fire 200 workers. ``Are we going to allow the entire domestic automotive manufacturing industry to disappear?''
After losing to Huckabee in Iowa and to McCain in New Hampshire, Romney is relying on a win in Michigan to stay competitive. Last week, his campaign canceled ad purchases in South Carolina and Florida and shifted the money to the Wolverine State.
``Romney's running as someone who really understands Michigan's problems,'' said Tom Rath, one of the candidate's top strategists.
2000 Race
McCain, 71, also is well-known in Michigan, having won the state's Republican primary in 2000, defeating then-Texas Governor George W. Bush.
The Arizona senator is counting on a repeat performance to give him momentum for subsequent primaries. Like Romney, McCain rushed from New Hampshire to Michigan, where he began touting an economic agenda that includes reining in federal spending, shoring up Social Security and Medicare, middle-class tax cuts and job training.
Michigan had a 7.4 percent unemployment rate in November, compared with a national rate of 4.7 percent, according to the U.S. Labor Department. It is also feeling the effects of the credit crisis: In 2007, Michigan accounted for 35,404 of the 588,882 U.S. home-mortgage foreclosures, according to foreclosure.com.
In Livonia on Jan. 12, McCain said training and technological improvements would lead to new, better-paying jobs.
`Bright Future'
``Michigan has a bright future; but it will not be reached attempting to recreate the past,'' McCain said.
Huckabee, 52, has also jumped into the economic debate. In an address at the Detroit Economic Club on Jan. 11, the former Arkansas governor laid out his proposals for a ``fair tax'' based on consumption that would replace federal income and payroll levies.
The state ``helped save America'' during World War II ``and now it may be time for America to help save Michigan,'' he said.
His low-budget campaign is also is running a TV ad that obliquely takes a shot at Romney's background as co-founder of Bain Capital LLC, a Boston buyout firm, suggesting he reminds Americans of ``the guy who laid them off.''
The ordained Baptist minister's appeal goes beyond his economic message. Lower and Western Michigan have blocs of evangelical voters who may turn out for him in large numbers. These voters account for up to 30 percent of the state's Republican electorate, and their support for Huckabee would hurt Romney more than McCain, said Reed, who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.
